Know Your Cup Rookies: Kyle Larson

"RJ Turnbull" (rodrant64) 02/20/2014 at 03:18 • Filed to: NASCAR, Kyle Larson

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Who is he?

Kyle Larson, 21 years old from Elk Grove, California, is the guy that everyone's been telling is the next big thing in NASCAR. He was a Japanese-American driver who was part of NASCAR's Drive for Diversity program in 2012, but frankly they were lucky to have him and not the other way around. A open-wheel phenom from the sprint car ranks, Larson competed in USAC and World of Outlaws until he decided to go the NASCAR route instead of Indycar and decided to join Chip Ganassi Racing's driver developmental program in 2012. He's gone from the K&N Pro East Series to the Nationwide Series and now to Cup in just a 2 year span as he replaces Juan Pablo Montoya in CGR's #42 car.

What has he accomplished?

Larson racked up numerous wins in USAC and WoO as a teenager; he won 22 races in 2011 alone, including a sweep of the 4-Crown Nationals at Eldora Speedway in Midget, Sprint and Silver Crown.

His first full season of full bodied stock cars came in the K&N East Series in 2012, where he won both Rookie of the Year and the championship on the strength of 2 wins, 8 top 5's, 12 top 10's and a series-best 6.4 average finish in 14 races. For his 2nd full season, he moved up to the Nationwide Series with Turner Scott Motorsports and proceeded to finish 2nd in just his 4th series start. He went on to rack up 9 top 5's (including 3 runner-up finishes), 17 top 10's and a 13.8 average finish to finish 8th in the standings and win ROTY.

He's also driven part time in the Camping World Truck Series, finishing 2nd in his 3rd series start in 2012 and picking up his first national touring series win at Rockingham last year; overall, he's got 3 top 5's and 5 top 10's in just 6 starts (8.0 avg fin).

What are his Rookie Of The Year chances?

Very, very good. This is going to come down to a two-driver battle between Larson and Austin Dillon, as they're the only ones in equipment that's capable of winning races and maybe even contending for a Chase spot. Chip Ganassi Racing, formerly Earnhardt Ganassi Racing that was CGR and DEI and Racing even before that, has encountered numerous ups and downs over the past 4 seasons; they won 4 races in 2010 (17.2 avg fin), fell off the face of the earth in 2011 and 2012 (no wins, 20.6 avg fin between the two seasons) but rebounded somewhat in 2013 with Jamie McMurray winning at Talladega (17.9 avg fin). Larson takes over a #42 squad, led by crew chief Chris Heroy in his 3rd year with the team, that Juan Pablo Montoya nearly won a few races in last year yet still only managed to finish 22nd in owners points. JPM's off to Indycar, leaving Larson as perhaps an equal replacement behind the wheel.

If CGR can keep up the momentum they started in 2013, then Larson's got the pure talent to come out on top in the ROTY battle. It might have to be through some peaks and valleys versus any kind of consistency, but the points system only takes into account the 17 best finishes and includes bonus points for top 10's, which could work into his favor. Or he'll crash and burn a lot, but it could've gone either way like that last year in Nationwide and it definitely went the positive way.

What are his long-term chances?

Of all this year's rookies, Larson has by far the highest ceiling and the most championship potential. That just his 3rd season of competing full time in stock cars will be spent at the top level of Cup is incredibly remarkable. Or not a very wise decision by Chip Ganassi, depending on how things go this season. It was a bit of a shock when Larson raced Nationwide full time last year instead of Trucks, and JPM's departure made for a scenario similar to what Joe Gibbs Racing faced in 2009 with Tony Stewart leaving and Joey Logano being forced to move up far earlier than planned. Except Larson moving up might've been the plan all along, and going from a single season or less in Nationwide to Cup has worked out well for the likes of Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Ryan Newman, and Kurt Busch. And Logano proved that if you're good enough, you can get through any early struggles and eventually come into your own. No matter how it happens, Larson's going to get there.

His ability to jump into any car, without any knowledge of setups or giving good feedback to his team, and just go fast and win in it was enough for Rick Hendrick to admit that he would've signed him up if he had any room for him in his 4 Cup teams. That alone is all you need to know that Larson's going to be a star in Cup (or at the very worst, the next Brian Vickers). The thing is, Hendrick's made room in his inn for drivers before. And between Trucks, Nationwide and Cup he's driven exclusively for teams (TSM, CGR) that're powered by Hendrick engines. CGR's not a bad team, and Chip certainly wants Larson to be the catalyst that gets CGR back to a level of championship contention that they haven't been at in over a decade. Can he give Larson the equipment he needs to accomplish that and keep him on board for the long haul?

Probably not, if I had to predict anything. Regardless if CGR pulls it off or Larson has to switch teams to do it, he'll find a way to come out as the most successful driver among the rookie class of 2014. Which is why I can admit I saved the best of last, and why I will predict that he wins ROTY in a tight battle with Austin Dillon.